Numbers don't lie...sometimes

2 losers

2010-01-29T14:41:00.000-08:00

Clips +1 -103

Aves +117

1 hockey

2010-01-28T14:36:00.001-08:00

Islanders +121

Lost Contrarian Cred

2010-01-27T13:30:00.000-08:00

Cavs -13 -102

ouch

2010-01-25T10:19:00.001-08:00

on a nice 5-19 streak in hockey

2 more losers

2010-01-23T16:41:00.000-08:00

Hornets +12 -104
Jazz -16.5 +101

some dreadful hockey

2010-01-23T15:41:00.000-08:00

Kings +143
Thrashers +113
Canucks +111

1 for tomorrow

2010-01-23T13:33:00.001-08:00

Vikings +3.5 +103

More NBA less NHL

2010-01-22T11:09:00.000-08:00

Wiz +3 -105
Bucks +7.5 -102
Bobcats +7 -101
Thunder +3.5 -104
Knicks +5.5 -101
Pacers +3.5 +104
Spurs -6 -102
Suns -6.5 -107
Warriors -7 -105

Oilers +107

More plays

2010-01-21T15:36:00.000-08:00

Cavs -3 +102
Clips +10 -101

Rangers +137
Wild +106
Sabs +103

Not Smart

2010-01-20T15:18:00.000-08:00

Suns -13 -107
Wizards +4 +100
Kings +9.5 -103
Twolves +7 -105
Dubs +5.5 +102
Clips -3.5 -105

1 play

2010-01-19T16:01:00.000-08:00

Sabs +111

puck plays

2010-01-18T15:22:00.000-08:00

Lightning +116
Blues +115
Sabs +104

Buf/Pho U5 +117

NBA plays

2010-01-16T15:41:00.000-08:00

Suns +2.5 +107
Spurs +1 +105

Back at it

2010-01-16T14:13:00.001-08:00

Thrashers +113

So cold lately

2010-01-11T17:20:00.000-08:00

Suns -9 -109

LA Kings +131

SUNDAY losers

2010-01-10T09:32:00.000-08:00

Sens +135
Ott/Car O5.5 +121
Dal/Clm O5.5 +105

Spurs -13.5 -105

Saturdays plays

2010-01-09T13:13:00.000-08:00

Thrashers +162
Canadians +132

Fla/Ott O5.5 +116
Ana/Nash O5.5 +111
Cal/Van U5 +136
Det/SJ O5.5 +123

Thunder -8.5 -102

NFL plays

2010-01-08T23:46:00.000-08:00

Bengals -2.5 -101
Cardinals -1 +111

1 NBA PLAY

2010-01-08T18:41:00.000-08:00

Nugs +4 +105

hockey

2010-01-07T15:55:00.000-08:00

Chi/Bos U5 +116
Rangers +143
Sens +202

Sure loser

2010-01-06T19:17:00.001-08:00

Blues +212

Weird NBA plays

2010-01-06T15:47:00.000-08:00

Hawks -14 +104
Spurs -10 -101
Suns -4.5 -102
Clips +5 -102

1 for sure

2010-01-05T15:00:00.000-08:00

Sens -106

Ball

2010-01-04T16:00:00.001-08:00

Thunder +2.5 -106

I HATE THE NFL!

2010-01-04T15:49:00.000-08:00

Bos/NYR O5.5 +141
Kings +182

Should have stayed away

2010-01-03T09:53:00.000-08:00

Lions +4.5 -108
Dolphins +3 -108
Bucs +3 -111
Broncos -9.5 -102
Redskins +3 +108
Seahawks +6 +104

1st hockey of the day

2010-01-03T09:24:00.000-08:00

Sens +108

Some late plays

2010-01-02T16:29:00.000-08:00

Oilers +250

Det/Pho U5 +114

Sat. morning hockey

2010-01-02T09:43:00.000-08:00

Lightning +154
Kings +120

Car/NYR O5.5 +117

got to 1 play

2009-12-31T17:40:00.000-08:00

Oilers +192

Night time hockey

2009-12-30T18:26:00.000-08:00

Kings +154
Caps +133

LA/Cal U5 +135

hockey again

2009-12-29T16:38:00.000-08:00

Coyotes +127

Van/Pho U5 +132

Pucks

2009-12-27T15:35:00.000-08:00

Maple Leafs +242
Blackhawks -178

Nash/Chi U5 +133

Not sure about that chalk but the computer spit it out.

Back for hockey

2009-12-26T15:38:00.000-08:00

Ottawa +175

NY/NY O5.5 +132
Chi/Nash U5 +128
Ana/SJ O5.5 +108

Interesting read

2009-12-24T08:40:00.000-08:00

from Puck Prospectus link

Monday hockey

2009-12-21T15:51:00.000-08:00

Devils +144
Stars +119

NYR/Car O5.5 +116
SJ/Dal O5.5 +106

1 MORE

2009-12-19T17:11:00.000-08:00

Clm/Col O5.5 +111

Morning hockey

2009-12-19T09:51:00.000-08:00

Red Wings +128
Preds +146
Coyotes +108

Det/Dal O5.5 +119
Pho/Ana O5.5 +133

NBA debut

2009-12-17T16:33:00.000-08:00

Knicks +3 -106
Heat +4 +100

ummm, hockey

2009-12-17T15:51:00.000-08:00

Coyotes (of course) +147
Stars +102
Islanders +119
Kings +155

Can't be worse than yesterday

2009-12-16T15:46:00.000-08:00

Buffalo +125
Coyotes +121

Dal/Car O5.5 +107
Mon/NJ U5 +126
NYI/NYR O5.5 +110
Ana/Van O5.5 +106

yeah, more hockey

2009-12-15T15:27:00.000-08:00

Flyers +191
Lightning +145
Aves +138

Cal/StL U5 +123

PUCKS

2009-12-14T15:38:00.000-08:00

Nash/Colum O5.5 +117

Kings +157

Sat. hockey

2009-12-12T14:03:00.000-08:00

Ana/Clm O5.5 -109
Buf/NYR O5.5 +126
Det/Nas O5.5 +126

Coyotes +114

More hockey

2009-12-11T15:31:00.000-08:00

Wild +173
Lightning +155
Stars +174

Min/Cal U5 +121

Time to start hockey

2009-12-10T16:49:00.001-08:00

Thrashers +187
Coyotes +121

World Cup by the numbers

2009-12-07T22:14:00.000-08:00

Nate Silver was commissioned by ESPN to come up with a statistical ranking of all the national soccer teams. His reputation alone gives me a high amount of confidence with its accuracy. Also, reading through his thorough explanation of the SPI, I think it is definitely the best rating system we have for soccer. It has had some SSS success, as well. His most recent column gave percentages for each nation to win its group, which I then compared to the odds from 5dimes over the weekend. For a more entertaining read, The Saw did a similar analysis but with wit and good writing; but here, it will just be calculations and tables!

After doing these calculations I immediately put these in:

Uraguay to win group A +400 2x
Cameroon to win group E +430 2x
Paraguay to win group F +370 2x

There are some other good looks but I will wait till we get closer to the tournament for a final analysis of plays. Also line shopping would be a smart move but as of now I am limited to 5dimes.

NFL plays

2009-11-28T17:34:00.000-08:00

Texans +3 +105
Bengals -13.5 +107
Bills +3 +114

2009-11-27T19:09:00.000-08:00

NC St. +5.5 +102
Oklahoma -8 +103
Georgia +7.5 +103

Early play

2009-11-27T19:07:00.000-08:00

Arizona St +3 +104

Friday Football

2009-11-26T21:44:00.000-08:00

West Virginia +1 -103

Late Games

2009-11-22T12:24:00.000-08:00

Jets +10.5 +104
Bears +3 +118

Opps

2009-11-22T11:15:00.000-08:00

Slept in and missed the early games. Too much celebrations for the Ducks game.

College week 12 plays

2009-11-20T23:07:00.000-08:00

Louisville +11.5 -107
Cuse +8.5 -103
Cal +7 +106

College week 11 plays

2009-11-13T22:04:00.000-08:00

Vandy +3 -101
USC -10.5 -108
Arizona St +18 -105
Central Florida +4 -105

No more leans posts

2009-11-12T10:08:00.001-08:00

The leans have not been different enough from the plays to be worth the trouble.

Leans Update

2009-11-10T10:34:00.000-08:00

NFL:
16-20 leans
Passed all 4 of my leans this week and went with 2 others for a clean sweep of a 6 game swing.

NCAA:
29-29 leans

Actual record to the right.

Late Play

2009-11-08T15:40:00.000-08:00

Cowboys +2.5 +112

Better line according to the half-point calculator

NFL losers

2009-11-08T09:53:00.000-08:00

Redskins +9 -110
Bucs +9.5 +102

Late money on both these teams has me confused and mad that I got such a crap number.

Beyond those losers

2009-11-07T11:09:00.000-08:00

Wake +14 +102
Iowa St +7 +106
Tulane +7 +100
Nebraska +4.5 -105
Tulsa +1.5 +105
Arizona St +10 +105
Cal -7 +107

Early College Plays

2009-11-07T02:05:00.000-08:00

Iowa -15.5 -104
NC St -6.5 +100

Probably dumb

2009-11-06T15:22:00.000-08:00

Boise/La Tech U51.5 -104

Weekly leans

2009-11-05T17:19:00.000-08:00

Iowa St +7.5 vs Okie St
Nebraska +4 vs Oklahoma
UCLA -5 vs Washington
Stanford +7 vs Oregon
Virginia +13.5 @ Miami
Tulsa +1 vs Houston

Redskins +10 @ Atlanta
Bucs +9.5 vs Green Bay
Honestly, I have no idea about the NFL anymore.

Leans Update

2009-11-03T21:39:00.000-08:00

NFL:
15-19 leans
Passed all 4 of my leans this week and went with 2 others for a clean sweep of a 6 game swing.

NCAA:
27-26 leans

Actual record to the right

NFL Week 8 picks

2009-11-01T09:26:00.000-08:00

Buffalo +3.5 -102
Green Bay -3.5 +106

PAIN picks

2009-10-30T22:20:00.000-07:00

Cuse +15 +100
Iowa -17.5 +107
Purdue +7 +102
Wake +6.5 -102
Vandy +11.5 +102
Auburn +4.5 -101
Baylor +13 +103
UCLA +9 +106
Illinois +7 -105
Arizona St +6.5 +105

Hmm...how did this turn into my biggest week?

Leans

2009-10-28T11:38:00.000-07:00

Cuse +14.5
Iowa -17.5
Vandy +11.5
Auburn +3.5
Florida -15
Arizona St +6.5
Illinois +7
Colorado +3.5
La Tech +3

Ravens +3.5
49ers +11.5
Raiders +16.5
Titans -3

Leans recap

2009-10-26T16:40:00.000-07:00

Bordering on not caring

NFL:
11-19 leans

NCAA:
21-23 leans

NFL PLAYS

2009-10-25T09:54:00.000-07:00

Rams +14 -102
Browns +9 -109
Bucs +15.5 -102

NCAAF plays

2009-10-23T20:20:00.000-07:00

Virginia +5 +104
Vandy +13.5 -105 (Betjam)
Mich St -1.5 -101

Week 8 Week 7 leans

2009-10-20T20:15:00.000-07:00

NCAA:
Virginia +5.5 vs G Tech
UNC -2 vs Florida St
Mich St -1 vs Iowa
Small looking card which is fine by me.

NFL:
Rams +13 vs Colts
Browns +7 vs Packers
Bucs +14.5 vs Pats
Fins +6 vs Saints
Cowboys -4 vs Falcons

Football Leans Record Update

2009-10-20T20:08:00.000-07:00

NFL:
10-15 leans

NCAA:
21-20 leans

Actual records to the right.

NFL

2009-10-18T09:03:00.000-07:00

Redskins -6.5 -101
Saints -3.5 +104
Bucs +3 +112
Raiders +14 +101

This is way too many games for a crappy card and I will probably be on the Bears later.

Judgment Day

2009-10-16T22:41:00.000-07:00

Okie +3 -106
Purdue +13.5 +104
Wisco -2.5 -107
Western Mich +7 -108
Vandy +7 -104
Georgia Tech +3 +115
Florida -24.5 +103
Mid Tenn St +4.5 -104

Late leans post

2009-10-16T09:46:00.000-07:00

NCAA:
Oklahoma +3
Purdue +13.5
Wisco -2.5
Georgia Tech +3
Okie St -7
Florida -24.5
Middle Tenn St +4.5

NFL:
Washington -6.5
Baltimore +3
Tampa +3
I don't like any of these NFL picks...

Leans recap

2009-10-15T11:15:00.000-07:00

NFL:
9-13 leans

NCAA:
18-17 leans

Actual record to the right.

Boise St is not good

2009-10-14T14:51:00.001-07:00

Tulsa +9.5 -106

So Ugly!

2009-10-11T16:28:00.000-07:00

Tennessee +3.5 -108

Contrarian's dream, until you have to watch the game...

Horrible Week 5 NFL picks

2009-10-11T09:28:00.000-07:00

St. Louis +10 -101
Detroit +10.5 +108
Denver +3 +102

More later. Also, why is Contrarianville passing Washington/Carolina with the horrible consensus data? It screams pass but the numbers are there. And we know Numbersdon'tlie...sometimes.

CFB plays

2009-10-09T21:54:00.000-07:00

Cuse +10 +100 terrified
Illinois +4 -105 terrified
Mississippi +4.5 -105 wut?
Tennessee -1.5 +100 terrified
Ohio St -16 +101 ridiculous consensus #s

NFL week 5 leans

2009-10-08T22:14:00.000-07:00

Rams +10 vs Minnesota
Chiefs +9 vs Dallas
Lions +10.5 vs Pittsburgh
Broncos +3 vs New England
Titans +3.5 vs Indy
Miami +1 vs NY Jets

The last two are pretty much definite plays. I still don't know why the public loves those giant road favs so much but I guess that is the point.

NCAAF leans

2009-10-06T21:59:00.000-07:00

Nebraska -3 at Missouri
Syracuse +10 vs West Virginia
Illinois +4.5 vs Michigan St
Mississippi +6.5 vs Bama
Arizona -2.5 at UDub
Tennessee -2 vs Georgia
UCLA +3.5 vs Oregon
Arky +3 vs Auburn

I really don't want to play Cuse, Nois or Tenn. Why must the lines look so short?

Football Leans Record Update

2009-10-06T21:43:00.000-07:00

I am mediocre.

STD:

NFL
5-11 leans
9-10 actual

NCAAF
15-12 leans
8-8 actual

MNF

2009-10-04T21:45:00.000-07:00

Packers +4 +106

Just in time (to lose)

2009-10-04T09:48:00.000-07:00

KC +8.5 -103
Browns +6.5 -104
Jags +3 +112
Bears -9.5 -110
Broncos +2.5 -101

NCAAF plays

2009-10-02T23:07:00.000-07:00

Cuse +6.5 -104
Minnesota -2.5 -111
Duke +16.5 +100
Illinois +7 +105
Michigan St -3.5 -105
Tennessee -3 +105

So much chalk!

NFL leans WEEK 4

2009-09-30T21:31:00.000-07:00

Last week my leans went 0-6. Variance kicked me in the groin.

Week 4
KC +9 vs NY Giants
TB +7 at Washington

Neither of those are slam dunks. Last week had so many gross plays compared to this week. I suppose that will limit the money lost.

Addition:
After looking at consensus numbers, it seems the public isn't afraid to eat massive chalk as much as I would have thought (Ind, SF). I was also wrong about Tampa (the public likes them), which I don't understand because they just gained 86 yards in the whole game! Plus, there is a ton of love for other road dogs (Det, Bal, SD). WTF.

NCAAF leans

2009-09-29T23:40:00.000-07:00

Syracuse +6.5 vs South Florida
Minnesota -2.5 vs Wisco
Vandy +8.5 vs Ole Miss
Duke +16.5 vs Va Tech
Georgia -3 vs LSU
Illinois +7 vs Penn St
Michigan St -2 vs Michigan
Tennessee -2 vs Auburn what???

Four favorites doesn't seem right but I wouldn't want anything to do with them, so they fit the criterion.

Football Recap

2009-09-28T20:29:00.000-07:00

NFL=bad

STD:
NFL
4-10 leans
5-8 actual

NCAAF
13-6 leans
6-4 actual

NFL Week 3 picks

2009-09-26T20:11:00.000-07:00

Jags +3.5 -104
Tampa +6.5 -106
Rams +6.5 -102
Seahawks +2.5 +105
Bills +5.5 +104

That card is so gross.

I don't get it

2009-09-25T23:06:00.000-07:00

Of my initial NCAAF leans, I don't know what to do at all now. They are either total miscalls (Iowa, Stanford) or have probably lost value due to line movement (Oregon). I'm stumped and confused. I might as well be Chris Ault!

For now I will go with:

Oregon +5.5 +106
South Florida +14 -103

probably Va Tech if I can get +3 at Matchbook

I really don't want to do this...

2009-09-25T16:24:00.000-07:00

which makes it a play.

Nevada +7 +106

yep, certain loser

2009-09-24T16:33:00.000-07:00

Cocks +4 +101

Football Leans

2009-09-22T18:48:00.000-07:00

College
South Carolina +3 vs Ole Miss
Miss St +12.5 vs LSU
Oregon +5.5 vs Cal
Stanford -7 vs Washington
Iowa +10 at Penn St

NFL
Titans +1 at Jets
Tampa +6.5 vs Giants (gross)
Rams +6.5 vs Packers
Seahawks +1 vs Bears
Bills +6 vs Saints
Raiders +1 vs Broncos

Leans recap

2009-09-22T11:58:00.000-07:00

The actual plays are recorded to the right. I will also keep a tally of my leans just to see how my culling is performing. Seasons so far:

NFL
4-4 leans
4-4 actual

NCAAF
8-6 leans
3-3 actual

Plays in Early

2009-09-16T20:10:00.000-07:00

Won't be around this weekend so plays in now:

Fresno St +7 +104
Duke +22.5 -102
Oregon -5 -102
Florida St +7.5 -104

Texans +6.5 +102
Lions +9.5 -103
49ers -1.5 -102
Bears +3 -110
Dolphins +3 +109

Football Leans

2009-09-15T22:47:00.000-07:00

NCAAF
Miami -4.5 vs Georgia Tech
Fresno St +7 vs Boise St
Duke +22.5 at Kansas
Oregon -4 vs Utah
Florida -29.5 vs Tenn (really!?)
Florida St +7.5 at BYU

What a weird list for a contrarian. Again, these are based solely on my first impressions when I read the lines.

NFL
Texans +6.5 at Titans
Jets +3.5 vs Patriots
49ers -1 vs Seahawks
Dolphins +1 vs Colts

More established/better contrarians may laugh at these lists but I am trying to make these calls on my own and then check what others think. By doing this I hope to "learn to fish".

Football Recap

2009-09-15T15:39:00.000-07:00

NFL Week 1
1-2 -1.93x
leans 1-3

NCAAF Week 2
1-1 -0.07x
leans 5-3

great recap huh?

NFL picks

2009-09-13T09:37:00.000-07:00

Cleveland +4 +102
Tampa +4.5 +106

Oakland +10 -101

2 Plays in

2009-09-11T20:07:00.000-07:00

Tulane +18.5 -106
Houston +15.5 -101